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300174元力股份-China Cement-Trip takeaways

ChinacementtripinWest,EastandSouthChinapostNationalHolidays。

???Wehavereturnedfromacementtrip,visitingtheentireconstructionvaluechain.Ourbiggesttakeawayisthatcompanieswhocontrolupstreamresourceswilldominateinthenewlandscapeofsupplysidereformorenvironmentalprotection.Clinkerresourcesareincreasinglytightandinventoriesarelow,aslargeplayersarereducingexternalclinkersalesandoverseasexports.Aggregatesandsandpriceshavealsomorethandoubledasaresultofenvironmentalmeasures,providingaprofitablebusinessextensionforcementplayers,giventheirnaturaladvantage.Largeplayerswhohavehigherenvironmentalstandardsarealsoinapositiontogainalotofmarketshare,withConchSeptembervolumesup10.5%yoy.Givenhighercoalprices,large-scaleproductionhaltsin4Qandalready-lowinventories,4Q17isshapinguptobeoneofthestrongestquarterswehaveseensince2011,promptingourearningsupgrades.Headinginto2018,weseefurtherhikestocementpricesonthebackofstrongerpricecoordinationandthepotentialfor32.5Rgradecementremoval.Thedemandoutlookisalsoquitestrongwithmanylarge-scaleinfrastructureprojectsduetostartimmediatelyposttheCPCmeeting.Ourtoppicksare:Conch-A,ConchVentureandWCC.。

???Structurallyhigherandmorestablecementprices;2017justthebeginning。

???Weremainconstructiveon2018cementASPsas:1)peakshiftingproductionhaltswillstepupinstrength,2)therearehigherproductioncostsfromenvironmentalcostsandelevatedcoalprices,and3)thereisgreaterpricingpowerbyleadingproducersthroughcontrollingclinkerresources.。

???InNEChina,winterproductionhaltsannouncedfor2018havebeenextendedbyonemonthfromNov15,2017toApr30,2018.WhenthemarketreopenspostCNY,themarketwillhaveminimuminventories,supportingthecontinuationofhighcementprices.Largeproducersarealsogainingmoremarketshareastheyaresellinglessclinkerandaddingtheirowngrindingstationsinstead.Forexample,Conchadded20mtofcementgrindingcapacityin2017,whileCRCwillreducesalesoftheirclinkerin2017/18andsaveitfortheirowngrindingstations.Should32.5Rremovalbeimplementedin2018,clinkerdemandwillincreasebyc.20%,leadingtonationwideshortagesandasuresqueezeincementprices.Conch,thelowest-costcementproducer,alsonotesitsstrategychangetoprioritizeprofitabilityovervolumesandwillsoonberollingoutaregionalsalescompanywiththelikesofCNBMtocoordinateallsalesinEastChina.。

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